Job Order / Req Expected Value

Why this comes up

Not every open req deserves equal recruiter attention. A req with high GP but a low realistic fill probability can be worth less, in expectation, than a lower-GP req you usually fill. This engine weighs GP against fill probability and the actual delivery cost of working the req, producing a single expected-value figure to prioritize by.

How we calculated this

Expected Delivery Cost = Recruiter Hours x Loaded Recruiter Hourly Cost + Sourcing Cost + Other Direct Req Cost
Expected GP Component = Probability of Fill x Expected GP if Filled
Expected Value = Expected GP Component - Expected Delivery Cost

Worked example: 40% probability of fill, $12,000 expected GP if filled, 25 recruiter hours at $45/hr loaded cost, $300 sourcing cost.

Expected Delivery Cost = 25 x 45 + 300 = $1,425
Expected GP Component = 0.40 x 12,000 = $4,800
Expected Value = 4,800 - 1,425 = $3,375

What this means

• A req with high GP but low fill probability can have a lower expected value than a lower-GP req you fill reliably; expected value, not GP alone, is what should drive prioritization.
• Delivery cost matters even when a req doesn't fill; recruiter hours and sourcing cost are spent regardless of outcome, which is why they're subtracted from the probability-weighted GP, not just from a successful fill.
• A negative expected value means the req is expected to lose money working it at your current fill probability, worth flagging before committing significant recruiter time.

Common mistakes

• Prioritizing reqs purely by GP without weighing realistic fill probability, overvaluing reqs you rarely actually fill.
• Using an optimistic fill probability rather than one grounded in your actual historical fill rate for similar reqs.
• Ignoring delivery cost entirely, treating every req as free to work regardless of outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Where should my probability-of-fill estimate come from?

Your own historical fill rate for similar reqs, by client, role type, or difficulty, not a generic guess. See Recruiting Funnel Conversion for the underlying conversion data.

What should I do with a low or negative expected-value req?

Either decline it, renegotiate terms (a higher fee for a genuinely hard-to-fill role), or accept it deliberately for strategic reasons, client relationship value, for example, rather than by default.

Does this account for opportunity cost?

Not directly; a low-expected-value req also has an opportunity cost in recruiter time that could go to a better req. Weigh that alongside this figure when your team is capacity-constrained.

Limitations

Depends entirely on the accuracy of your fill-probability estimate; an unrealistic probability produces a misleading expected value regardless of how precise the rest of the math is.

Next decision

• Check whether your team has capacity to prioritize higher-value reqs

Learn more

Fill Rate, Time to Fill, and the Staffing Funnel — the funnel data this fill-probability estimate should come from.